FACTORS OF ELECTORAL SUCCESS OF CANDIDATES FOR PEOPLE’S DEPUTIES DURING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE (2014-2019)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25264/2786-9202/2.2-42-58Keywords:
parliamentary elections, candidates, political parties, electoral success, party affiliation, regression analysisAbstract
The study examines the factors influencing the electoral success of candidates for People’s Deputies of Ukraine running under the majoritarian system. Potential factors of electoral success in single-member districts are tested using data from the 2014 and 2019 parliamentary elections in Ukraine. The primary data sources include the website of the Central Election Commission, the newspaper “Uryadovy Kuryer”, and the qualitative data archive of the Institute of Philosophy and Sociology of the Polish Academy of Sciences. The research objectives are achieved through the method of multiple linear regression applied to two datasets: data on all candidates for People’s Deputies who ran under the majoritarian system in the 2014 parliamentary elections (3194 candidates) and data on all candidates for People’s Deputies who ran under the majoritarian system in the 2019 parliamentary elections (3080 candidates). The dependent variable is the number of votes received by the candidates, while the independent variables include party nomination, gender, age, and education of the candidates. The analysis reveals that party nomination, gender, age, and education were statistically significant factors in the 2014 elections. In the 2019 elections, party nomination, gender, and education remained statistically significant variables. Among the examined factors, party nomination proved to be the most influential for the electoral success of candidates in both 2014 and 2019. Additionally, the study found that only one-third of candidates in 2014 and 2019 had party affiliation. The majority of candidates running under the majoritarian system during these years were men in terms of gender and had higher education qualifications. The distribution of majoritarian candidates for People’s Deputies was uneven across regions of Ukraine in the 2014 and 2019 elections. The analysis of changes in party affiliation among candidates revealed a trend toward an increasing share of self-nominated candidates and a redistribution of candidates between new and old political parties. Candidates adjusted their party affiliations to align with new electoral and political opportunities.
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Chapin, W. D. 1997. Explaining the electoral success of the new right: The German case. West European Politics, 20(2), 53-72. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402389708425191.
Haime, A., Vallejo, A., Schwindt-Bayer, L. 2022. Candidate Experience and Electoral Success. Latin American Research Review, 57(1), 170-187. https://doi.org/10.1017/lar.2022.10.
Hall, A. B., Snyder, J. M. 2015. Candidate Ideology and Electoral Success. Manuscript, Stanford University. http://www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/Hall_Snyder_Ideology.pdf.
Hibbing, J. R., Brandes, S. L. 1983. State Population and the Electoral Success of U.S. Senators. American Journal of Political Science, 27(4), 808-819. https://doi.org/10.2307/2110894.
Lawson, C., Lenz, G. S., Baker, A., Myers, M. 2010. Looking Like a Winner: Candidate Appearance and Electoral Success in New Democracies. World Politics, 62(4), 561-593. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887110000195.
Loewen, P. J., Koop, R., Settle, J., Fowler, J. H. 2013. A Natural Experiment in Proposal Power and Electoral Success. American Journal of Political Science, 58(1), 189-196. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12042.
Lutz, G. 2010. The Electoral Success of Beauties and Beasts. Swiss Political Science Review, 16(3), 457-480. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1662-6370.2010.tb00437.x.
Lutz, G. 2010. First Come, First Served: The Effect Of Ballot Position On Electoral Success In Open Ballot Pr Elections. Representation, 46(2), 167-181. https://doi.org/10.1080/00344893.2010.485808.
Mondak, J. J. 1995. Competence, Integrity, and the Electoral Success of Congressional Incumbents. The Journal of Politics, 57(4), 1043-1069. https://doi.org/10.2307/2960401.
Perissinotto, R., Bolognesi, B. 2010. Electoral Success and Political Institutionalization in the Federal Deputy Elections in Brazil (1998, 2002 and 2006). Brazilian Political Science Review, 4(1), 10-32. https://doi.org/10.1590/1981-3865201000010001.
Polskie Archiwum Danych Społecznych. Repozytorium Danych Społecznych. https://rds.icm.edu.pl/dataverse/pads.
Taebel, D. A. 1975. The Effect of Ballot Position on Electoral Success. American Journal of Political Science, 19(3), 519-526. https://doi.org/10.2307/2110542.
Tavits, M. 2009. Effect of Local Ties On Electoral Success and Parliamentary Behaviour. Party Politics, 16(2), 215-235. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068809341053.
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